Toronto Real Estate News | Hover or click over a community to see the local sale prices this month.
Increase over the May 2020 sales result, both on an actual (+89 per cent) and seasonally adjusted basis (+84 per cent).
The month of June shows a very substantial increase in sales due to the movement to reopen the economy following COVID-19. Although we are still in early days of recovery, there is pent up demand in the market. Notable growth is reported to be in the detached and townhouse market segments in the GTA regions surrounding the City of Toronto. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board President Lisa Patel announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,701 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in June 2020. In comparison to the May 2020 sales report, the increase is both on an actual (+89 per cent) and seasonally adjusted basis (+84 per cent). TREBB CEO John DiMichele states that “It will be important to closely monitor housing market conditions as economic recovery continues in the second half of 2020 and into 2021”. Although COVID-19 had a significant impact on the market, in order to ensure long-term affordability in the GTA, supply should be top-of-mind.
For the month of June, the average selling price of all home types combined was $930,869, up 11.9 per cent compared to June 2019. The actual and seasonally-adjusted average selling price was also up compared to May 2020 by 7.8 per cent and 9.8 per cent. Average price growth in the Toronto Proper (416) reports that all home types are up year-over-year leading with semi-detached homes up 22.0 per cent. Detached homes are next with a growth of 14.3 per cent followed by townhomes (+6.2 per cent) and condos (+5.6 per cent). This points to an upturn in the higher-end market segments. Jason Mercer, TREBB’s Chief Analyst states that “the housing market is an important driver of economic recovery for 2020 and 2021”.
As always, it’s good to remember that real estate is local so check out our chart on the different municipalities across Toronto to see what is happening in your neighbourhood.
For TRREB’s full Toronto Real Estate Market News Report continue reading below.
Home Sales and Listings
- Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,701 residential transactions through TRREB’s MLS® System. This result was only down by 1.4 per cent compared to June 2019.
- New listings amounted to 16,153 in June 2020 – up on a year-over-year basis by 2.1 per cent.
- The average selling price for June 2020 transactions was $930,869 – up by 11.9 per cent compared to the average price of $831,882 reported for June 2019. All housing types experienced annual average price growth, leading with the semi-detached homes up 22 per cent, followed by detached up 14.3 per cent, townhomes up 6.2 per cent and condos up 5.6 per cent.
- The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 8.2 per cent year-over-year in June. This, coupled with the fact that average selling price growth outstripped growth in the MLS® HPI benchmarks, points to a resurgence in the higher-end market segments.
- Year-over-year growth in sales was reported in some areas and market segments. Especially notable were the detached and townhouse market segments in the GTA regions surrounding the City of Toronto.
ARCHIVED TORONTO REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORTS
The Toronto real estate market began to really pick up in the month of May. The TRREB stats for May 2020 show more activity and higher sales than April 2020 but of course the market is still down from this time last year. In May 2020 the sales dipped 53.7% from the May 2019 report, but on a month-to-month basis from April 2020 to May 2020, the rise in sales has been 55.2%. There is still continued impact on the real estate market due to COVID-19, but we are starting to see a light at the end of the tunnel. Although necessary social distancing regulations are still in place, realtors have been able to facilitate many transactions through virtual open houses and one on one appointments. We anticipate that we will continue to see a rise in sales as Doug Ford implements each new stage in his plan to open the city and get it back to ‘normal’.
For the month of May 2020 TRREB reported that the average price of homes is $863,599, up 3% from last year at this time. However, when it comes to the Toronto proper we are seeing a much more positive outlook. Leading the price growth in Toronto Proper (416) are semi-detached homes, up 8.8% year-over-year, followed by condos up 5.0% and detached up 2.7% while townhomes have dropped -0.2%.
For TRREB’s full Toronto Real Estate Market News Report continue reading below.
Home Sales and Listings
- Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 4,606 residential transactions through TRREB’s MLS® System. This result was down by 53.7% per cent compared to May 2019.
- New listings amounted to 9,104 in May 2020 – down on a year-over-year basis by a similar rate compared to sales (-53.7%).
- The average selling price for May 2020 transactions was $838,248 – up by 3 per cent compared to the average price of $863,599 reported for May 2019. The semi-detached and townhouse market segments experienced annual average price growth above the rate of inflation. The condominium apartment and detached segments experienced year-over-year price declines on average.
- The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark price was virtually unchanged in May 2020 compared to April 2020. On a year-over-year basis, the composite benchmark was up by 9.4 per cent
- The difference in year-over-year growth between the MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark and the average selling price was related to the fact that home sales in the City of Toronto, particularly in the detached segment, were down by a greater annual rate than overall sales in the GTA. This resulted in a compositional impact on the overall average selling price.
Amidst a global pandemic the Toronto real estate market appears to be holding steady in April as demand slows and the listing supply depletes.
Amidst a global pandemic the Toronto real estate market appears to be holding steady as demand slows and the listing supply depletes.
Although there are many waiting and hoping for Toronto prices to dip, there hasn’t been a rush of new inventory to hit the market as most sellers choose to hold off. Without this rush of new inventory — especially in Toronto’s market of limited housing inventory and a finite demand — prices have held steady amidst this pandemic.
The market however, is a little softer, more days on market is the norm but special properties are continuing to sell quickly in multiple offer scenarios.
The April 2020 numbers are showing that if you’re a prospective first-time buyer looking to purchase a condo — now is the time to do so. While move-up buyers looking to get into a detached home can take advantage of the lower detached prices and increasing townhome, and semi-detached prices.
Ford’s announcement yesterday highlights the most recent Covid-19 numbers and shows promise, and a light at the end of the tunnel. As restrictions begin to lighten in Toronto we expect the market to bounce back – and quickly.
For TREB’s full Toronto Real Estate Market News Report continue reading below.
Home Sales and Listings
- Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 2,975 residential transactions through TRREB’s MLS® System. This result was down by 67 per cent compared to April 2019. Weekday sales remained within a relatively steady range during the month, averaging 130 per day.
- New listings amounted to 6,174 in April 2020 – down on a year-over-year basis by a similar rate compared to sales (-64.1 per cent).
- The average selling price for April 2020 transactions was $821,392 – up by 0.1 per cent compared to the average price of $820,373 reported for April 2019. The semi-detached and townhouse market segments experienced annual average price growth above the rate of inflation. The condominium apartment and detached segments experienced year-over-year price declines on average.
- The trend for the MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark, which had been on an upward trajectory since the beginning of 2019 flattened in April. On a year-over-year basis, the Benchmark was up by 10 per cent.
- The MLS® HPI indices represent prices for typical homes with consistent attributes from one period to the next. The fact that the MLS® HPI was up year-over-year by a greater rate than the average selling price suggests that the share of higher end deals completed in April 2020 versus April 2019 was down.
Toronto Real Estate Market Sees Decline in Transactions in Last Half of March 2020
This year’s Spring market will be one for the books as it was a little different in comparison to previous years.
Amidst Covid-19, work from home and stay at home recommendations the Toronto real estate market has seen almost a ‘split’ March. There was a clear break in market activity between the pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 periods. The market was up by 50% in terms of transactions for the first half of March and then down 15% for the second half of the month after Covid-19 hit. The number of trades and new listings has dropped a tell tale that most buyers and sellers are waiting until after the crisis is over to re-enter the market
Although we’d usually be in full swing of spring market, less and less properties are coming to market each day. For March as a whole, new listings were up by only 3%. However, similar to sales, new listings dropped during the second half of the month by 18.4%. Those who do not NEED to sell are not listing which is depleting the market of necessary inventory. Most of the buyers looking right now are looking for a deal and those sellers who do not NEED to liquidate are sitting on the sidelines until the market has rebounded. For these sellers it makes sense to hold onto their largest asset until they are confident that the market has returned to ‘normal’.
The economic impact of Covid-19 may have large effects on the lower end of the housing market. Would-be first-time buyers may choose to continue to rent for another year while they continue to save up the necessary funds needed for a deposit and this may take more time than originally anticipated due to the financial impacts of Covid-19.
For TREB’s full Toronto Real Estate Market News Report continue reading below.
TORONTO, ONTARIO, April 3, 2020 – Toronto Regional Real Estate Board President Michael Collins announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,012 home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in March 2020 – up by 12.3 per cent compared to 7,132 sales reported in March 2019.
However, despite a strong increase in sales for March 2020 as a whole, there was a clear break in market activity between the pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 periods. For the purposes of this release, the start of the post-COVID-19 period was the week beginning Sunday, March 15.
• The overall March sales result was clearly driven by the first two weeks of the month. There were 4,643 sales reported in the pre-COVID-19 period, accounting for 58 per cent of total transactions and representing a 49 per cent increase compared to the first 14 days of March 2019.
• There were 3,369 sales reported during the post-COVID-period – down by 15.9 per cent compared to the same period in March 2019.
For March as a whole, new listings were up by three per cent year-over-year to 14,424. However, similar to sales, new listings dropped on a year-over-year basis during the second half of the month (beginning March 15) by 18.4 per cent.
The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark price was up by 11.1 per cent year-over-year in March 2020. The average selling price for March 2020 as a whole was $902,680 – up 14.5 per cent compared to March 2019. The average selling price for sales reported between March 15 and March 31, was $862,563 – down from the first half of March 2020, but still up by 10.5 per cent compared to the same period last year
All Home Types Experienced Double-Digit Gains in February 2020
Following January’s unusually strong start, February 2020 home prices continue to see positive change. The TREB average home price now stands at $910,290 up 16.7% year-over-year. In the City of Toronto specifically, the average home price is up 17.7% y-o-y to $989,218.
All home types saw double-digit gains this month. Leading the price growth in Toronto Proper (416) are condos, up 18% year-over-year, followed by detached homes up 14.4%, and finally semi-detached homes and townhomes up 10.6% and 10.5% respectively.
Accelerated price growth is attributed largely to the ongoing competition between buyers. Buyers who lost in bidding wars in January are forced to be more aggressive with their offer strategies.
While February 2019 had experienced a ten year low in terms of home sales with only 4,982 transactions we saw this turn around in February 2020 with sales up 45.6% for a total of 7,256 transactions. Though this number still sits below the 2017 record.
Detached Toronto Homes Lead Toronto Price Growth Up 16.7%
January 2020 has kicked the real estate market off with a bit of a bang. Unlike the precedented slow start we usually see, the TREB market has realized 15.4% year-over-year sales growth. Continuing with the same trends seen in the last quarter of 2019 is a strong growth in sales coupled with a decrease in available listings leading to tighter market conditions.
TREB average sale price has increased 12.3% year-over-year. When we isolate Toronto sales detached Toronto homes are leading the way for the first time in a quite a while up 16.7% y-o-y followed closely by condos at 15% and semi-detached homes at 1.1%.
TREB President, Michael Collins equates this to steady population growth, low unemployment and low borrowing costs underpinning substantial competition between buyers.
At Pierre Carapetian Group, we’ve definitely noticed an increase in activity this January. Strong competition seems to almost be an understatement in Toronto as many homes have pushed double-digit multiple buyer bidding wars. Competition has been fierce and there is no sign of this cooling off in the near future.
If you’re considering buying this year be ready to jump into the market early and be prepared to loose out on a few offers before you win.
Sales Up While New Listing Supply Remains Low
In December Toronto real estate sales saw an increase of 17.4% year-over-year. Many Toronto home buyers returned from the sidelines in the Spring of 2019 which lead to a recovery in sales activity for the latter half of 2019. While sales may have been up in December, new listings remained low, down by 2.4% y-o-y. Just like the previous months before, tighter market conditions translated into accelerated price growth.
In the Toronto Proper, detached homes lead December price growth up 19.5% year-over-year followed by condos up 10.3%, semi-detached homes 6.9% and townhomes at 0.4%
Expect Further Price Growth in 2020
As we put 2019 in the rear view, so too are the final impacts of the mortgage stress test and 2017’s fair housing acts.
TREB’s Chief Market Analyst urges buyers to expect further price acceleration in 2020 if there is no relief on the supply front. And, quite honestly, I don’t see this happening in the near future. Toronto is continuing to build and sell new condos at an all time rate but it doesn’t match the need for supply or the future expected immigration that will continue to put pressure on Toronto housing.
The average selling price in December 2019 was $837,788 – up almost 12% y-o-y ending 2019 on a very strong note.
2019 Average Prices Up 4% Over 2018
On a yearly basis Toronto home sales amounted to 87,825 sales up 12.6% from the decade low of 2018 and generally in line with the median annual sales results of the last decade. For calendar year 2019, the average selling price was $819,319 – up by four per cent compared to $787,856 in 2018.
Toronto Real Estate Sales Up 14.2%, Sale Prices Up 7.1% in Highest Price Gain of 2019
November 2019 has been another strong month for Toronto’s real estate market. Sales are up year-over-year by 14.2% in November 2019. GTA-wide sales were up y-o-y for all major market segments. In the 416 or Toronto Proper, condos lead price gains at 10.9%, followed by detached home at 4.9%, townhomes at 3.2% and semi-detached at 0.3%.
Despite the increase in sales, new listings were down 17.9% y-o-y and active listings down 27.2% y-o-y. This has led conditions in the Toronto Real Estate Market to continue to tighten in the last quarter of this year with increased sales up against an increasingly constrained supply of listings. This increased competition among buyers has lead to a continued acceleration of the annual rate of price growth. The average sale price increased by 7.1% y-o-y to $843,637.
Michael Collins, Toronto Real Estate Board President attributes the most recent uptick in sales to the fact that many buyers likely have adjusted their preferences, changing the type and/or location of home they ultimately chose to purchase now that the 2017 Ontario Fair Housing Plan and stress test have set in with buyers.
Jason Mercer, TREB’s Chief Market Analyst says, “We should expect the rate of price growth to increase further if we see no relief on the listings supply front.”
Average Home Prices Rise 5.5% Amid Tight Market Conditions
The Toronto real estate market continued to tighten in October 2019. Amongst even tighter market conditions new listings fell 9.6% and the average home price rose 5.5% year-over-year.
As the trend of annual growth in sales versus annual decline in new listings continued into October 2019 Michael Collins, Toronto Real Estate Board President notes, “The problem is that the supply of available listings is actually dropping, resulting in tighter market conditions and accelerating price growth.” He says this as the trend of annual growth in sales versus annual decline in new listings continued into October 2019.
This months trends lead the Financial Post to describe Toronto’s real estate sales as, “the biggest jump since December 2017 [the year the market peaked].” And what a month it has been. In October 2019 we’ve watched as sales rose 14% year-over-year.
GTA-wide sales were up y-o-y for all major home types. While in the Toronto Proper, condos lead this price growth up 9.6% year-over-year followed by semi-detached homes up 7.1%, townhomes up 3.5% and detached homes up 1.1%.
Stronger and continued price growth is likely to continue as sales outpace new listing growth in Toronto. Leading this trend is a growing population due to high levels of immigration and steady mortgage rates holds.
Toronto Real Estate Sales Up 22%, Prices up 5.8% in September 2019 Y-O-Y
September is typically noted in the Toronto real estate market as the peak of the fall market and this year appears to be no different. Sales were up 22% from September of 2018.
Sales levels however continue to remain well below the record breaking September 2016 peak of more than 9,800 sales. With new listings down 1.9% from already previously low levels in 2018, and active listings down 14.1% y-o-y, lower sales levels are to be expected.
Despite lower sales levels, tighter inventory has led to continued annual price growth. The annual rate of price growth in September actually reached its highest point so far in 2019. The average sale price in Toronto rose 5.8% y-o-y to $843,115 from $796,782. On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, the September 2019 average selling price was up 1.2% compared to August 2019.
As always, please check your local Toronto neighbourhood and municipality in the map chart above or chart below to see how your neighbourhood is performing.
New Listings Down as Toronto Real Market Tightens
The Toronto real estate market sees a return to moderate price growth as sales rebound and listing supply tightens in August 2019. But competition between buyers has begun to heat up.
In the GTA sales are up year-over-year with the strongest annual rates of sales growth in the detached market. This reflects a rebound from the low volume of expensive home sales in 2018. The average sale price across the GTA $792,611 up 3.6% y-o-y and the condo segment continues to lead the market in price growth.
The Toronto market however grows tighter in August as sales rise but new listings were down 3% and overall active listings were down 11% y-o-y. Semi-detached homes lead Toronto’s price growth at 7.3%, followed by condos at 5.7%, townhomes at 4.1% and finally detached homes at 0.3%
Toronto Real Estate Market Sales up 24.3% in July, Prices up 3.2%
Toronto’s growth in sales this past month far outweigh new listings. This has lead to a further tightening of the Toronto real estate market as we move into what is typically a slower month — August.
New listings were down 9% year-over-year, sales were up 24.3% and prices increased by 3.2% year-over-year to $806,755. Tighter market conditions, increased competition — especially in the entry-level and higher density market segments — has lead to continue price growth
As we look to the Toronto Proper or the 416 we can see that Toronto’s detached home market is the only Toronto market not realizing positive sales and price growth. Toronto condos are leading price growth up, 7.7% y-o-y, followed by townhomes, up 5.5% and the semi-detached market up 5%.As always though, we want to get local. Check out your local Toronto municipalities in the chart above.
It’ll be interesting to watch and see what happens for the coming month of August. Typically a slower summer month for Toronto real estate, but we still have many buyers committed to their hunt this August. With Canada’s recent decrease to its mortgage rates and ultimately the Stress Test rate — it’ll be interesting to see what happens. But personally I’m expecting it to remain busy.
Toronto Real Estate Sales Up 10.4%, Prices Up 3% in June Y-O-Y
It’s been a busy first half of the year for the Toronto Real Estate market. With new listings remaining at similar levels to that of 2018 but an healthy increase in sales, market conditions have once again begun to tighten.
For Q1 and Q2 of 2019, sales were up overall by 8.5%. With inventory remaining at similar levels to last year, competition between buyers has increased which has lead to renewed price growth in a number of municipalities.
Sales in June this year picked up 10.4% when compared to June 2018 and the overall selling price was up 3% to $832,703. Leading this overall price growth as usual is the condo, townhome and semi-detached markets.
The Toronto Real Estate Board’s new President, Michael Collins credits Toronto growing employment, population and overall diversity as large contributing factor of Toronto’s growth rate.
Anecdotally, we’ve noticed an increase in buyers in the Downtown Core this spring. After an initial slow start — perhaps weather related — the market began to heat up this Spring.
But ,without an increase in new listings this year’s market conditions have tightened and price growth has picked up, especially for high-density home types, specially Toronto’s condo market.
It’s been a good month for the Toronto real estate market this past May. Sales have been steadily climbing and in May the Toronto real estate market saw a major increase in sales, up 18.9% year-over-year, TREB’s reported 15-year monthly low.
Following trend, average home prices are also up in the GTA by 3.6% to $838,540. As always though, we are focused on the 416 (Toronto Proper) which has realized even greater year-over-year gains of 7.8% to $937,804.
Leading this year-over-year price growth (as usual) is Toronto’s most affordable market, the condo market up 6.6% year-over-year, followed by townhomes up 6.2%, detached homes up 1.5% and semis down 0.2% year-over-year.
However, even though sales are up, they are still below the month of May’s 10-year average. With new listing only up slightly in may by 0.8% to 19,385 it’s clear that supply is still a major issue in the Toronto real estate market equating to tighter market conditions in favour of sellers.
Garry Bhaura of the Toronto Real Estate Board stated, “After a sluggish start to 2019, the second quarter appears to be reflecting a positive shift in consumer sentiment toward ownership housing. Households continue to see ownership housing in the GTA as a quality long-term investment as population growth from immigration remains strong and the regional economy continues to create jobs across diversity of sectors.”
It’s clear however that although there has been a positive shift, potential home buyers are still struggling with the stress test and stringent lending guidelines, many of which are still waiting on the sidelines to buy.
What is of note and importance this month though is this note by Jason Mercer, TREB’s Chief Market Analyst, “We are experiencing annual rates of price growth that are largely sustainable right now in the GTA – above the rate of inflation, but in the single digits. If, however, we continue to see growth in sales outstrip growth in new listings, price growth will accelerate. This potential outcome underpins calls from TREB and other housing industry stakeholders to address roadblocks preventing a more sustainable and diverse supply of housing reaching the market. Many households are not comfortable listing their homes for sale because they feel that there are no housing options available to better meet their needs.
April shows strongest annual rate of growth so far in 2019
The Toronto real estate market came out of the gates hot this spring. The April market stats are in and they paint to a picture of increasing sales, rising prices and tightened market conditions.
Although many Torontonians, especially those looking to finally break into the market, were hoping to see the market — and prices— settle this year, those who have been reading this blog know that we didn’t predict any long-term market lulls. So to anyone who’s been saying the market has “bounced back”, we say, “Don’t call it a comeback, we’ve been here for years!”
All kidding aside, this April we saw a substantial increase in home sales year-over-year. Transactions were up 16.8% and new listings were up 8%. However, with the growth rate of new listings much lower than sales, you can expect market conditions to continue to tighten and the housing supply issues to remain.
With the average sale price in April up by 1.1% compared to March 2019 and the benchmark price up by 3.2% — the largest rate of price growth in more than a year — the Toronto real estate market is poised for a promising 2019. The average sale price of a Toronto home increased year-over-year by 1.9 per cent to $820,148 from $804,926, the strongest annual rate of growth so far in 2019.
Toronto’s average price growth continues to be driven by Toronto’s condo and apartment market segment. Condos were up 5.8% year-over-year. While the average price for detached homes dips year-over-year in the GTA and remains neutral for 416 detached homes. Semi-detached homes in Toronto were up 2.9% while townhomes fell 4.7%.
TREB ends their monthly summary with a note on April sales: “While sales were up year-over-year in April, it is important to note that they remain well-below April levels for much of the past decade.” TREB notes that many home buyers arguably remain on the sidelines due to the Stress Test and increased costs of borrowing. However, we’d also like to note the lack of inventory on the market. If there is nothing to sell, there really is nothing to buy. We’ve also anecdotally noticed that many buyers are choosing to hold off for the right purchase and are spending a bit more time in the ‘search’ phase of purchasing a new home.
Townhomes Lead Sales Up 15.2% Y-O-Y | March Market Stats
March sales stats are in and, compared to last year, the market change has been pretty uneventful with prices across all home types within a plus or minus 3% change. Sales volume remains on par with March 2018, literally down one single transaction. The biggest takeaway is the lack of new listings hitting the market, down 5.1% year-over-year.
Focusing our attention on the 416 — Toronto Proper — it’s the townhome market leading sales volume, up 15.2% y-o-y, with all other home types seeing a drop in sales. Detached homes down 4%, semi-detached down 8.5% and condos down 14.1% y-o-y.
The biggest change in price is, as usual, the condo market up a modest 2.3% y-o-y, followed by townhomes up 0.4%, semi-detached homes down 1.3% and finally, detached homes down 2.1% y-o-y.
Remaining on the forefront of Toronto real estate news is the demand for the mortgage stress test guidelines to be reviewed. Jason Mercer, TREB’s Chief Market Analyst says that the tight market conditions are indicative of the moderate growth in real estate prices. He goes on to say “Despite sales being markedly lower than the record levels of 2016 and early 2017, the supply of listings has also receded. This means that in many neighbourhoods throughout the GTA, we continue to see competition between buyers for available listings, which provides a level of support for home prices.”
Is it the calm before the storm of spring market? We’ll have to wait and see what April brings.
FEBRUARY 2019 MARKET REPORT
This February was a VERY busy one for our office. So it was surprising to read that sales were actually down 2.4% compared to this time last year. This is a symptom of the GTA market as a whole due to a decrease in listings and tighter market conditions. This lead to GTA price growth of 1.6% on average.
As always though, we’re taking a look at the 416 or Toronto Proper. There is a similar picture with tight market conditions and slowing sales. Actually the only market segment that didn’t have slowing sales was Toronto’s semi-detached market. Sales were up 20% y-o-y which led to increasing prices up 10.5% y-o-y.
In comparison, Toronto detached homes, townhomes and condos have realized slowing sales. Down 9.6%, 12.6% and 6.7% respectively. Toronto’s tight real estate conditions however have average prices up for all home types except townhomes.
Leading Toronto’s average price growth is the semi-detached market up 10.5% y-o-y followed by condos up 7.4%, detached up 0.8% and townhomes down 1.7%.
Making headlines this week are the comments made by Garry Bhaura, Toronto’s Real Estate Board President as TREB released February’s 2019 market stats. These remarks have definitely not gone unnoticed. Bhaura comments, “The OSFI mandated mortgage stress test has left some buyers on the sidelines who have struggled to qualify for the type of home they want to buy. The stress test should be reviewed and consideration should be given to bringing back 30 year amortizations for federally insured mortgages. There is a federal budget and election on the horizon. It will be interesting to see what policy measures are announced to help with home ownership affordability.”
JANUARY 2019 MARKET REPORT
January’s Toronto real estate news picture hasn’t departed far from the script over the last few months. We’ve seen slow but stable price growth and this month appears to be no different.
The average price of GTA home is up 1.7% year-over-year to $748,328.
But what is of news is the moderate increase in transactions in January 2019 over December 2018. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up 3.4% and TREB President Garry Bhaura sees this increase as, “…in line with TREB’s forecast for higher sales in calendar year 2019.”
Sticking to the script, condos continue to lead price growth in the GTA. However if we take a look at the 416, or Toronto Proper, townhomes lead price growth up 12.3% y-o-y. This is followed by condos up 8.8%, semi-detached homes up 6.1% and trailing behind are detached homes down 8.8%
Pro-Tip: If you’re a move-up buyer, now is your time to take that leap!
As always, make sure you check out your neighbourhood in the local market stats below.
TORONTO CONDOS LEAD 2018 PRICE GROWTH UP 11.4% Y-O-Y
Making Toronto real estate news headlines this month are a few ‘scary’ stats. Sales may be down in the Toronto and GTA but so are listings. In 2018 total sales were down 16.1% from 2017. Leading to this decrease, however, is a decline in new listings entering the TREB MLS market. Total new listings were down 12.7% in 2018.
As a TREB MLS Realtor I noticed that fuelling these recent changes in the market were condominium apartment sales. Across the TREB market area (416 + 905), they are up 7.8% year-over-year. With overall sale prices down 4.3% y-o-y in the GTA.
Don’t be fooled by the BS floating around Toronto real estate ‘news’ channels this past week. They are lumping GTA stats with Toronto Proper stats and making a few people cr*p their pants in fear in the process. Although home sales may have slowed and the entire market as a whole is down, these stats lump all home types together. What we really care about is our local market. The 416 or “Toronto Proper” has actually been mostly isolated from these declines.
Toronto Real Estate News December Market Stats
Let’s break down the December Toronto real estate market stats for you.
When we lump all home types in the 416 together the average price is up 2.1% to $750,180 from $734,847 in 2018. Leading this trend is the least expensive Toronto real estate market type, condos. The Toronto condo market is up 11.4% followed by townhomes up 10% and semi-detached homes up 4% y-o-y.
The month of December continued to see slowing sales and decreasing inventory. Sales were down 22.5% with new listings down 31.5% compared to this time last year.
LEADING THE 2018 TORONTO REAL ESTATE MARKET TRENDS
High Borrowing Costs
Canada’s new mortgage stress test coupled with rising interest rates moved many would-be buyers to the sidelines. The Toronto Star actually stated that interest rates have risen five times since July 2015 with two more hikes to be expected this year.
Lack of Inventory
After new listings spiked in 2017, we continued to see a shift in the Toronto real estate market. Inventory began to dry up and many would-be home buyers weren’t finding homes that met their needs.
Toronto Condo Market Leads 2018 Price Growth
Jason Mercer of TREB MLS stated, “Price growth was strongest for less expensive home types, as many home buyers sought more affordable home ownership options”
As the least expensive Toronto real estate markets, condos, semi-detached homes and townhomes realized price growth gains in 2018. Toronto condos are up 11.4%, with townhomes up 10% and semi-detached homes up 4% year-over-year in the 416 (Toronto Proper).
Toronto Housing Market For Detached Homes Down 4%
Slowing sales and a decrease in prices contributed to the tampering of the overall market growth in Toronto and the GTA. Detached homes represent the top end of the Toronto real estate market and the hardest home type hit.
NEW CONSTRUCTION & PRE-CONSTRUCTION CONDO PRICES UP 12%
The greatest price growth this year can be seen in the new construction condo market. New construction condos are up 12% year-over-year with their re-sale counterpart following behind at 7.5% year-over-year.
PRE-CONSTRUCTION CONDO CONSTRUCTION COSTS UP 10%
Inflation of Toronto’s pre-construction condo market was fuelled by the cost of construction and land, up 10% year-over-year. You can read more on pre-construction development costs in our blog “Why $1,000 psf is Toronto’s new Real Estate Norm“.
Low Vacancy, High Rental Prices
It’s hard to keep up with the increasing demand for rental inventory. Without the help of investors there’d be even fewer units added to alleviate the strain on the rental market. According to a study by Ryerson last year, more than half of the 105,000 condos being developed in the GTA were investor-owned.
Home Affordability Expected to Continue Decline in 2019
According to a report from the Royal Bank of Canada and reported by CBC, home affordability is expected to decline in most Canadian cities. The report states, “[In Toronto] the cost of owning a home will take up 79 per cent of the median household income of $71,631 by the fourth quarter of this year, up from nearly 76 percent in 2018.” Rising interest rates will also continue to make carrying a mortgage more expensive.
Growing Toronto Job Market Will Bring Long-Term Housing Shortage
Toronto is a World-Class city and job market. As such, it has seen consistent immigration with two million more immigrants expected by 2023. Toronto has more than twice the proportion of recent immigrants (8.4%) to Canada (3.5%).
First-Time Buyers Hardest Hit By Increasing Mortgage Rates
Interest rates have been raised five times since July 2015 with two more hikes to be expected this year. Hardest hit will be those on the lowest end of the Toronto housing market. Specifically first-time buyers looking to break into the Toronto real estate market. Adding to the difficulty of breaking into the market is Canada’s Stress Test.
As a Toronto real estate agent one of the major things I’ve noticed this year—and it really was to be expected—is that condos have become the default choice for first-time home buyers, especially those looking to live in the Downtown core. Those looking to jump into the Toronto real estate market face increased competition and rising prices. The most affordable option — studio condos—increased 16.8% y-o-y with one bedroom condos increasing 10%, two beds up 7.5% and three beds up 3.3%.